易富贤Yi Fuxian《大国空巢》

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自由亚洲根据我的文章《“东升西降”和宋真宗封禅泰山》，制作了一期视频：
#东升西降 #宋真宗 #泰山封禅 #自由亚洲 #历史分析
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【中国的预期寿命和死亡年龄】死亡存在严重瞒报，比如2020年普查显示只死亡797万，预期寿命高达81.6岁，显然与健康水平不符；官方不敢承认，将死亡修正为998万，公布预期寿命77.9岁。据上海公安局泄漏数据，100+岁占比高达4.22%，而2020年日本只0.09%。官方数据虽不准，但自媒体数据（大幅降低寿命）更荒谬。
#中国人口 #预期寿命 #人口数据 #官方数据 #人口统计
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中国的结婚和出生还将跌跌不休： 1、第一，初婚人口还在快速下降。 第二，单身率还将上升。 第三，婚育年龄还将继续推迟。 第四，青年失业率居高不下。 中国初婚年龄仍早于日、台、韩，育龄人口未婚率也低于这三地，但生育率已远低于日本了，意味着中国的生育率下降势能很大。
#中国结婚率 #出生率下滑 #初婚人口下降 #单身率上升 #婚育年龄推迟 #青年失业率高 #生育率下降
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今天的Project Syndicate在Say More栏目发表对我的长篇高端专访，谈中国的人口政策、经济和中美关系等等。 他们两周才发表一篇Say More premium interview，每年只采访25人。让我这位湘西土匪、楚狂人穿着草鞋、别着腰刀，再次混迹在大咖之间。
#ProjectSyndicate #人口政策 #经济 #中美关系 #高端专访
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Famed Chinese demographer Yi Fuxian recently wrote for The Diplomat on the effects of a cross-strait war on demography. He contended that one way to deter the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is by putting the demographic issue front and center — last year total births in the PRC, he said, receded to levels not seen since 1762. Yi observes that Taiwan’s current fertility rate is already lower than Ukraine’s — a nation at war that is refusing to send its young into battle — and that its “demographic crisis suggests that Taiwan’s technological importance will rapidly decline, and its defense will become increasingly dependent on the United States.” He notes that low-fertility countries face slumping innovation, because of the lack of young people to staff and grow their technology industries. It is not difficult to read into Yi’s analysis and see that Taiwan has already peaked. But Yi goes on, relentlessly. Occupation of Taiwan by the PRC would have effects similar to its occupation of Hong Kong: declining birth rates and population flight. With Taiwan, the effects would be much worse, as the effects of sluggish population growth would likely precede PRC occupation. The PRC’s population too is in decline, and it’s likely that a young person reading these words will live long enough to see the US host a larger population than the PRC. Nor would the effects be limited to the nations involved. Yi says that economic dislocations, including inflation, caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reverberated across Europe, lowering birth rates in Poland and Germany. The PRC will export whatever economic problems it incurs, and it is one of the world’s leading trading economies. But here in Taiwan we are so advanced, we don’t even need a war to achieve these effects.
#Yi Fuxian #China demography #Taiwan #fertility rate #cross-strait war
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2000以来，我收到数万妇女的求助信，每天要耗费很多时间给她们回信，我的短短几句回复，对于绝望中的孕妇简直就是救命稻草，挽救了无数胎儿。《纽约时报》、《卫报》等媒体也报道了一些。我的粉丝中有60%是育龄妇女，她们称妇联（强迫她们堕胎）为女残，称我是真正的女权。现展示几封与网友的短信
#女权 #反堕胎 #妇女求助
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美国之音发表我的《中国房地产政策的两难，保经济还是保人口？》 中国的房地产是一个烫手的山芋。中国政府面临两难，如果房地产泡沫突然破灭，将导致经济减速，甚至全球金融危机。如果让房价“止跌回稳”，将导致生育率持续低迷、人口雪崩。
#中国房地产 #经济减速 #全球金融危机 #生育率低迷 #人口问题