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话说这个清明小长假叠加复活节假有点长，不开盘的市场着实无聊，虽然中间夹杂着极限营救，但毕竟还是没有开始地面战，地缘冲突暂时没有升级。明天金银美股终于又要开盘了，倒是可以稍微前瞻一下。 按照周五晚上的大非农数据来说，假如当时没有休市，大概第一时间会交易下降的降息预期并导致美股跌，金银跌。但市场很快会反应过来这次大非农数据并没有表面上那么鹰。公布值17.8w vs 预期值6w，看起来大超预期，但其中医疗保健贡献了7.6w，主要是前月罢工结束后的回流。而且时薪同比增速从3.8%降到了3.5%，意味着就业强但工资压力在缓解。这样本就降无可降的降息预期实际上并不会受到太多影响。也就是说对金银利空并不大。 但根据刚刚欧佩克+原则上同意将产量提高20.6万桶/日及这几天海峡通过量上涨来看，油价大概能被暂时压制住。 那么如果明天开盘市场消化的叙事是"大非农强但工资凉 + 海峡封锁松动 + OPEC增产"——那结果更可能是美股补涨，美元偏强或走平，金银承压或者走震荡。 但其实从上周五开始，金银对油价及利率预期的敏感度是在降低的，因为利率已经不是主要矛盾了。这轮黄金从战前到现在的涨幅，绝大部分是地缘避险+央行购金驱动的，不是降息交易。明天利空利多因素混杂，整体可能维持偏多震荡。周五的非农本来是金银利空，但休市可能已经提前消化了。OPEC增产+海峡运量提升的新消息更像是在给油价降温，而不是给战争降温。所以明天金银未必跌，反而更像是借油价回落做一次修复性上涨。 操作：65-75区间内震荡，高了就空，低了就多（好像是废话） 另外要注意的是明天的流动性环境比较特殊：上海金交所和上期所因清明假期休市，伦敦金银市场因复活节周一也休市。等于全球三大贵金属交易中心只有COMEX一个在开，亚盘和伦敦盘的流动性会很薄，要等到明晚九点半流动性才会真正恢复 当然，这一切分析的基础是伊朗那边没有更大的冲突升级，现在依然是战争因素大于一切宏观因素
#清明小长假 #复活节假 #地缘冲突 #金银美股开盘 #大非农数据 #降息预期 #美股跌 #金银跌
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这次美军营救行动从军事交换比上来说肯定是失败的，损失大了。但是从政治角度上来说肯定是赢了，不然川儿也不能发那么长的Truthsocial。 放到整个战场其实也是这个逻辑，从军事角度来看美军对伊朗军事资产，民生基建，领导人的综合打击战果肯定是更大的。但是你作为第一强国拿到这些战果本就理所应当 但只要伊朗作为弱者取得一些拿得出手的成果，并且美国最终无法体面收场，那在政治上就是输了，美国现在之所以还能撑起全球这么大的摊子就是积累了几十年的余威尚在，要政治上输了真就是彻底输了。
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随着后续细节的披露剧情真的是越来越精彩了，美军炸毁故障机跟之前伊朗方面发出的美军试图杀死飞行员的新闻就对上了。大概可以猜测是救援小队的飞机被伊朗围点打援击伤无法返航，美国为了防止伊朗人获得战利品造成舆论被动所以毁掉了这些飞机。 盘点一下这次美军总损耗清单：1架F-15E被击落，1架A-10被击伤坠毁在科威特，2架黑鹰被命中受损，2架运输机故障后被自毁——总共6架飞机报废或严重受损，就为了救两个人。这从"不惜代价"的角度当然是美军价值观的体现，但从作战效率角度看代价极大。 美伊之间还发生过一次类似的事件：1980年"鹰爪行动"。当时美军遗弃的直升机被伊朗缴获，成了伊朗几十年的宣传素材。这次美军显然吸取了教训，宁可多投入三架飞机也要把故障机炸掉，绝不再给伊朗留战利品。 如果这次行动美军实际损失较大的话，就可以部分打消川普地面冒险的信心。
#美军 #伊朗 #飞机损失 #军事冲突 #故障机 #飞行员 #救援行动
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一旦川普开始装逼，说明这飞行员和救援小队已经脱离危险了。上次抓捕马杜罗也是离境之后才发的。而且今天还是复活节，这把算是让川儿装到了，飞行员真的置之死地而后生了。 从这次特种救援来看，伊朗地面部队能力可能确实一般，起码说明快速反应能力和火力强度都不足。没有赶在美军到来之前搜捕并抓到飞行员，后来的交火中也没能打退特种小队。 从这一个月的作战来看，伊朗整体优势在于无人机和弹道导弹，在于广袤的国土和复杂的地形，在于被外族袭击后内部相较以前的团结。 这次特种救援也可以看成是地面战的预演，可能会让川普不得不重新评估地面战的可行性。毕竟特种作战跟大兵团成建制作战不同，非常考验火力协同，营连排战术配合。 既有可能让川普觉得伊朗地面部队不堪一击加大地面战的决心，同时成建制长期作战跟小部队短暂突袭是完全不同的。大兵团需要持续的后勤补给线，需要在敌方纵深长时间停留而非短暂接触，火力协同的复杂度是指数级上升的。扎格罗斯山脉纵贯西南部，对机械化部队极不友好，而这次飞行员恰好就是藏在这片山区里。特种小队能利用山地隐蔽，但整个旅级战斗队在同样地形里会变成后勤噩梦。 继续观察后续川普的决策吧，其实真要地面战也行，我们就是想看热闹。
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从早上开始，就不断有消息传出第二个人也被救了，再等点后续细节
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川儿现在有点无能狂怒了，马上就到4.6号也就是他之前TACO过一次的十天最后期限了，如果这次再TACO一下那就彻底丢脸了。 但现在搜寻个飞行员都这么费劲的情况下，在没有彻底掌握制空权的情况下，在伊朗高原多山的地形下，不管选择在哪抢滩登陆打地面战都会是更大的军事灾难。很难想象在地面一次性报销2000-5000人或者几百人被抓获会怎么样。 这明显是在错误的时间在错误的地点跟错误的敌人打的一场本不该发生的战争，已经彻底影响了美国原有的国运。 诸位看官看了一个多月应该也明白了，美国就是在吃冷战老本，拿着当年准备跟苏联打世界大战的资产打了从海湾战争到伊拉克战争的几个弱小敌人才显得天兵下凡。 但实际上伊朗是冷战之后美国打过的最强的敌人，伊朗不是委内瑞拉和古巴，甚至可以年产100万辆汽车，稍微了解一些工业体系的就知道这意味着什么，指望伊朗打光库存导弹是不现实的，伊朗到现在都还能打出液体加注的导弹就说明整个产业链韧性强劲。 在打一个中等大小，被封锁几十年的伊朗都困难的情况下，美国军事霸权毫无疑问的动摇了。其实跟石油美元相比，东亚，拉美，甚至欧洲都不算什么核心利益。 从川普近期对内阁成员动手的情况来看，最终甩锅给下面人的可能性很大，但因为他独断专行的性格众所周知，这种“皇帝是好的，都是身边奸臣害的”式甩锅对基本盘能有多大作用值得怀疑。 4.6号期限到来之后大概会用持续升级打击（能源设施、桥梁、电厂）来制造言而有信的叙事而不是直接空降/登陆陷入更深泥潭。但目前最大的悬念依然是那名没找到的飞行员，一旦他落入伊朗手里，那可能真会变成一个大筹码。
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但凡伊朗有点单兵防空火箭筒，拯救飞行员的行动就彻底变成葫芦娃救爷爷了
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虽然最近这一个月我一直都在跟踪伊朗战争进展，但老实说我并不是一个伊朗问题专家。让我们看看专业人士是如何解读的
#伊朗战争 #时事 #战争分析
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从目前最新的消息来看，F15 跳伞的两名飞行员，一人被救走，另一个武器操纵员下落不明，甚至可能已经被抓了。同时还有消息说，一架 A10 攻击机被击落。除此之外，甚至还有一架 F16 被击落的信息传出来。 目前海峡收费方案还在稳步推进，伊朗跟阿曼提出了新的计划。同时海峡放行的船只也在增加，但尚不能确认这些船只是否交了过路费。当然，即使交了，他们也不会承认
#F15跳伞 #飞行员失踪 #A10攻击机 #F16击落 #海峡收费方案 #伊朗阿曼计划 #船只通行
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飞行员争夺战开始了
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目前媒体有些炒作搜索抓捕美军飞行员的倾向，飞行员固然属于高价值目标，一般在战争中可以用来交换人质。但重要度还没到影响战局的程度。 但如果伊朗成功活捉飞行员的话，既可以用来证明伊朗防空能力经过一个多月轰炸依然在线，更重要的是可以用来做政治宣传。 想象一下美军飞行员作为战俘低头丧气的拍摄视频认罪的话对美国国内的民意和士气打击得有多大。甚至可以对标1979年德黑兰人质危机对卡特的影响。 如果川普派出特种部队深入敌后营救跳伞飞行员的话，到底是上演一出《拯救大兵瑞恩》还是《葫芦娃救爷爷》就非常值得期待了
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同时劳工部统计局修正了前两个月的数据：1月份非农新增就业人数从增加12.6万人上修至增加16万人；2月份非农新增就业人数从减少9.2万人下修至减少13.3万人。修正后，1月和2月新增就业人数合计较修正前低0.7万人。
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美国3月失业率4.3%，低于前值预期值4.4%。非农就业人口17.8万人，高于前值预期值。总体显示就业较强，尤其在战争的当下，部分缓解了滞涨焦虑。
#美国失业率 #非农就业人口 #就业市场 #滞涨焦虑 #经济数据 #就业报告
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大饼没行情金银股休市的一天难得放松一下。不过战争并没有放假，双方还在稳步升级局势。 美国炸了伊朗的大桥：这座新建的尚未投入使用的大桥位于德黑兰附近，炸毁这座桥名义上可以切断军事补给的路线。但实际上依然是此前以炸促和的延续。而伊朗可能的对等报复无疑会进一步加剧局势紧张。 一度传出伊朗再次击落F35的消息，但经过飞机碎片对比，目前认为F15的可能性较大，同时还传出了俘虏飞行员的新闻。 川普班子有了较大调整，以美陆军参谋长为代表的12个将军被解职，大概是在为伊朗地面战扫清障碍。司法部长也被解职，这大概反应了川普近期精神状态和情绪不佳。 目前看本周末开始地面战的概率不是很大，但早晚还是要开的。一旦布什号到位替换掉在希腊紧急整修的福特号，重新跟林肯号组成双航母战斗群，加上之前到位的两栖舰，仍然是主攻阿巴斯港+格什姆岛概率较大。哈尔克岛面积太小，82空降师战术上空投在那么小的范围上比较难，坚守更难。但哈尔克岛里科威特较劲倒是方便运送补给和火力支援，作为佯攻方向倒还可以。
#美国炸桥 #伊朗报复 #局势升级 #F35击落事件 #川普政府
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4月大概率还有最后一次地面战，因此不会单边上涨，所以可以高位做空。 同时地面战前后都会有各种舆论战信息战及战后利空落地，因此不会单边下跌，所以也可以低位做多。 美国和伊朗，战争和怕股市债市崩盘的川普共同成为了整个风险市场的上下轨，卡住各核心资产不会偏离轨道太多，给交易员们一个难得的宽幅震荡机会。 在情绪处在两个极端的时候看看技术面，如果极限压力位和支撑位到了，在极端情绪里，用有限风险去反着干大概率能有所收获。毕竟这是人祸不是天灾，有川子出手随时矫正市场方向。 这是最差的时代但也是最好的时代，虽然川儿天天嘴炮真的很烦，但他也制造了巨大的波浪巨大的机会。所有利多利空都会快速折现，即使错了也不会错太久。 现在美油价格已经反超布油了，伊朗也一改以往保守的印象，既懂得直接攻击股市，也知道打击算力中心的重要性。自从AWS机房受损之后，感觉Gemini Ultra变成了白痴，只能先降回PRO凑合用。 在油价期现倒挂的背景下，之前传出的日本举国之力做空的新闻真的搞笑，不过合理怀疑这是高市在配合川普以国家信誉担保恐吓多头延缓上涨速度。毕竟没有人真的敢在不可控因素过多的时候裸空原油这种战略物资，不然真的是找死了。 总之，在战争结束前或者能看到结束的曙光前或者最后一击结束确认伊朗不会更大报复之前，金银股饼不崩就很好了，很难出现单边行情。但确实每次恐慌下跌起码都是金银长线加仓的好机会。
#地面战 #舆论战 #信息战 #利空落地 #美国 #伊朗 #风险市场 #特朗普 #股票市场 #债券市场 #交易机会 #极端情绪 #技术面分析
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昨天觉得金银涨的挺猛了铜股 $FCX 反弹也一般，做了一个月过山车好不容易回本就先出了，今天美股开盘后金银倒是又从白天的下跌里开始了一波小反弹，但是FCX还是比昨天低一些。 看来看去 $CRCL 刚好到了老早之前看到的85支撑位，索性买了一些，这下抄到桂林底了，他之前刚到100就要买，拦都拦不住。。。
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看这篇及前一篇引文 两个判断： “对于市场走势来说，我还是坚持在海峡彻底和平之前会维持震荡而没有单边上涨基础。 而且本周金融市场走势节奏跟上周类似，都是周一晚7点左右开始反弹，周三高点，随后开始避险下跌周末可能发起的打击。现在周三高点已到，后续走势尚需时间验证。” 那么既然现在美国时间周三晚，亚洲早上周四下跌已经实现，今晚美股开盘之后大概率还是回吐昨天的涨幅。毕竟这周五不开盘，所以今晚市场可能要提前留够三天的避险余量。
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费了点劲又听了一遍把原文扒出来了： 中文： 谢谢你们，我的美国同胞们，晚上好。 首先，让我祝贺美国国家航空航天局（NASA）团队以及我们勇敢的宇航员，成功完成“阿尔忒弥斯二号”（Artemis II）的发射。这次任务意义非凡——它将飞得比历史上任何载人火箭都更远，远远越过月球，绕行之后再返回地球，这是前所未有的壮举，令人惊叹。他们已经在路上了，愿上帝保佑他们，这些人是真正的勇士。愿上帝保佑这四位了不起的宇航员。 就在今晚，美国军方对伊朗发起“史诗之怒行动”（Operation Epic Fury）已经整整一个月。在过去四周里，我们的军队在战场上取得了迅速、 निर्ण decisive（决定性）且压倒性的胜利，这种胜利前所未见。 今晚，伊朗的海军已经不存在了，他们的空军被摧毁，他们的领导层——这个恐怖政权的大多数核心人物——已经被清除。伊斯兰革命卫队的指挥系统正在被彻底瓦解。 他们发射导弹和无人机的能力大幅削弱，武器工厂和火箭发射装置正在被摧毁，所剩无几。 在战争史上，从未有敌人在短短几周内遭受如此清晰、如此毁灭性的损失。 我们的敌人正在失败，而美国——在我执政的五年里——正在胜利，而且现在比以往任何时候都更强大。 谈到当前局势，我还要感谢我们的部队，他们以精湛的行动在极短时间内控制了委内瑞拉。行动迅速、致命、强力，并赢得了全球的尊重。 在我第一任期重建军队之后，我们拥有世界上最强大的军事力量。现在我们与委内瑞拉建立了真正意义上的合作伙伴关系，在石油和天然气生产与销售方面合作紧密。委内瑞拉拥有仅次于美国的全球第二大储量。 我们现在已经完全摆脱对中东的依赖，但我们仍然在那里，是为了帮助盟友。我们不需要他们的石油，我们不需要他们的任何资源，但我们仍然在那里提供支持。 今晚，我想向大家更新我们在伊朗取得的巨大进展，并解释为什么“史诗之怒行动”对于美国安全和自由世界的稳定至关重要。 自2015年宣布竞选总统以来，我一直承诺——绝不允许伊朗拥有核武器。 这个狂热政权47年来一直喊着“消灭美国”“消灭以色列”。他们的代理人曾参与贝鲁特美军军营爆炸（造成241名美国人死亡），用路边炸弹杀害了数百名美军士兵，还参与了“科尔号”驱逐舰袭击，并实施了无数暴行，包括以色列10月7日的血腥袭击。 这个政权甚至还屠杀了本国4.5万名抗议民众。 如果让这样的政权拥有核武器，将是无法容忍的威胁。 我永远不会让这种事情发生。 在我的任期内，我做了很多事来阻止伊朗发展核武器： 最重要的一点——我下令击杀了卡西姆·苏莱曼尼将军。他是个危险的天才，但也是一个极其邪恶的人。 其次，我终止了奥巴马的伊朗核协议——那是一个灾难。奥巴马给了他们17亿美元现金，结果他们却嘲笑美国，并继续推进核武计划。 如果这个协议继续下去，伊朗早就拥有大量核武器了，世界将完全不同——甚至可能没有现在的中东，也没有以色列。 我优先选择外交，但伊朗拒绝所有协议，继续推进核武计划。 因此，在6月，我下令实施“午夜之锤行动”（Operation Midnight Hammer），打击伊朗关键核设施。我们的B-2轰炸机表现完美，彻底摧毁了这些设施。 随后伊朗试图在其他地点重建核计划，同时快速积累远程导弹，甚至可以打到美国本土。 但我们已经把这些能力全部摧毁。 我们的目标很简单：彻底瓦解伊朗威胁美国及其盟友的能力。 我们已经做到： 海军：彻底摧毁 空军：基本消灭 导弹体系：几乎耗尽 军工体系：严重打击 这些行动将使伊朗军力瘫痪，无法支持恐怖组织，也无法制造核武器。 我们的军队表现堪称史无前例。 我还要特别提到，在这场行动中牺牲的13位美国士兵。我曾两次前往多佛空军基地迎接他们回国。 他们的家属都说：请完成这项任务。 我们会完成，而且会很快完成。 我还要感谢我们的中东盟友：以色列、沙特、卡塔尔、阿联酋、科威特和巴林。 关于油价上涨——这是因为伊朗袭击油轮造成的短期影响。这再次证明，他们绝不能拥有核武器。 美国现在比以往任何时候都更有经济实力应对这一切。 我们已经成为全球最大油气生产国，甚至超过沙特和俄罗斯总和。 我们几乎不再依赖霍尔木兹海峡的石油。 那些依赖海峡的国家应该自己去保护它。 我的建议是： 买美国的石油 拿出勇气，自己去守护海峡 战争结束后，海峡自然会重新开放，油价会下降，股市会上涨。 我们的经济将继续强劲复苏。 接下来两到三周，我们将进行更猛烈打击，把他们“打回石器时代”。 如果谈判失败，我们将摧毁他们的发电系统。 我们还没有打他们的石油设施，但如果需要，可以随时摧毁。 他们已经没有防空能力，我们完全不可阻挡。 这场行动已经进行了32天，而伊朗已经被彻底削弱。 这是对未来的投资。 当一切结束，美国将更安全、更强大、更繁荣。 愿上帝保佑美国军队，愿上帝保佑美利坚合众国。 谢谢大家，晚安。 英文： thank you very much my fellow Americans good evening let me begin by congratulating the team at nasa and our brave astronauts on the successful launch of Artemis ii it was quite something it will be traveling further than any manned rocket has ever flown and will very substantially pass the moon go around it and come back home from a distance that has never been done before it's amazing they are on the way and god bless them these are brave people we want god bless those four unbelievable astronauts. as we speak this evening it's been just one month since the United States military began operation Epic fury targeting the world's number one state sponsor of terror Iran in these past four weeks our armed forces have delivered swift decisive overwhelming victories on the battlefield victories like few people have ever seen before tonight Iran's navy is gone their air force is in ruins their leaders most of them terrorist regime they led are now dead their command and control of the Islamic revolutionary guard corps being decimated as we speak. their ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces very few of them left never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large scale losses in a matter of weeks，our enemies are losing in America as it has been for five years under my presidency is winning and now winning bigger than ever before discussing this current situation i also want to thank our troops for the masterful job they did in taking the country of Venezuela in a matter of minutes. that it was quick lethal violent and respected by everyone all over the world after rebuilding our military during my first term we have by far the strongest military anywhere in the world and now we're working along with Venezuela are in a true sense joint venture partners we're getting along incredibly well in the production and sale of massive amounts of oil and gas the second largest reserves on earth after the United States of America we're now totally independent of the Middle East and yet we are there to help we don't have to be there. we don't need their oil，we don't need anything they have，but we're there to help our allies. tonight，i want to provide an update on the tremendous progress our warriors have made in Iran and discuss why operation epic fury is necessary for the safety of America and the security of the free world from the very first day，i announced my campaign for president in twenty fifteen i have vowed that i would never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon this fanatical regime has been chanting death to America death to Israel forty seven years their proxies were behind the murder of two hundred and forty one Americans in the marine barracks bombing in Beirut. the slaughter of hundreds of our service members with roadside bombs. they were involved in the attack on the uss coble and they carried out the countless other heinous acts including the blood just horrible bloody atrocities of October seventh in Israel，something that most people have never seen anything like it this murderous regime also recently killed forty five thousand of their own people who were protesting in Iran forty five thousand dead for these terrorists to have nuclear weapons would be an intolerable threat the most violent and thuggish regime on earth would be free to carry out their campaigns of terror. coercion，conquest and mass murder from behind. nuclear shield i will never let that happen and neither should any of our past presidents the situation has been going on forty seven years and should have been handled long before i arrived in office，i did many things during my two terms in office to stop the quest for nuclear weapons by Iran first and perhaps most importantly i killed general Qasem suleimani in my first term he was an evil genius Brilliant person a horrible human being however. the father of the roadside bomb and he lived just horrible what he did Iran would have been. perhaps in far better stronger position if he lived we would have had probably a different conversation tonight but you know what we'd still be winning and winning big and then very importantly i terminated Barack Hussein Obama's Iran nuclear deal a disaster Obama gave them one point seven billion dollars in cash green cash took it out of banks from Virginia dc and Maryland all the cash they had flew it by airplanes in an attempt to buy their respect and loyalty. but it didn't work they laughed at our president and went on with their mission to have a nuclear bomb his Iran deal would have led to a colossal arsenal of massive nuclear weapons for Iran and they would have had them years ago and they would have used them would have been a different world. there would have been no Middle East and no Israel right now in my opinion，the opinion of a lot of great experts，had i not terminated that terrible deal i was so honored to do it i was so proud to do it was so bad right from the beginning essentially，i did what no other president was willing to do they made mistakes and i am correcting them my first preference was always the path of diplomacy yet the regime continued their relentless quest for nuclear weapons and rejected every attempt at an agreement for this reason in June. i ordered a strike on iran's key nuclear facilities in operation midnight hammer nobody's ever seen anything like it those beautiful b-2 bombers performed magnificently. we totally obliterated those nuclear sites the regime then sought to rebuild their nuclear program at a totally different location making clear they had no intention of abandoning their pursuit of nuclear weapons they were also rapidly building a vast stockpile of conventional ballistic missiles and would soon have had missiles that could reach the American Homeland，Europe and virtually any other place on earth iran's strategy was so obvious they wanted to produce as many missiles as possible and they did with the longest range possible and they had some weapons that nobody believed they had we just learned that out we took them all. out. that no one would really dare stop them and they're racing for a nuclear bomb a nuclear weapon like nobody's ever seen before they were right at the doorstep for years everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons but in the end those are just words if you're not willing to take action when the time comes as i stated in my announcement of operation epic fury our objectives are very simple and clear we are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders that means eliminating Iran's navy which is now absolutely. destroyed. hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before and decimating their defense industrial base we've done all of it their navy is gone their air force is gone their missiles are just about used up or beaten taken together these actions will cripple Iran military crush their ability to support terrorist proxies and deny them the ability to build a nuclear bomb our armed forces have been extraordinary there's never been anything like it militarily everyone is talking about it and tonight i'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion as we celebrate this progress we think. especially of the thirteen American warriors who have laid down their lives in this fight to prevent our children from ever having to face a nuclear Iran. twice this past month i've traveled to Dover air force base and it's been something i wanted to be with those heroes as they returned to American soil when i was with them and their families，their parents，their wives，their husbands，we salute them and now we must honor them by completing the mission for which they gave their lives every single one of the people their loved ones said please sir，please finish the job every one of them and we are going to finish the job and we're going to finish it very fast. we're getting very close i want to thank our allies in the Middle East Israel，Saudi，Arabia Qatar，the uae，Kuwait and Bahrain. they've been great，and we will not let them get hurt or fail in any way shape or form many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home the short term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict this is yet more proof that Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons they will use them and they will use them quickly it would lead to decades of extortion. economic，pain and instability worse than we can ever imagine the United States has never been better prepared economically to confront this threat you all know that. we built the strongest economy in history we're going through it right now the strongest in history in one year，we've taken a dead and crippled country i hate to say that，but were a dead and crippled country after the last administration and made it the hottest country anywhere in the world by far with no inflation record setting investments coming into the United States over eighteen trillion dollars and the highest stock market ever with fifty three all time record highs in just one year it all positioned us to get rid of a cancer that has long simmered it's known as the. nuclear agreement. they didn't know what was coming they'd never imagined it remember because of our drill baby drill program America has plenty of gas we have so much gas under my leadership we are number one producer of oil and gas on the planet without even discussing the millions of barrels that we're getting from Venezuela，because of the Trump administration's policies we produce more oil and gas than Saudi，Arabia and Russia combined think of that Saudi，Arabia and Russia combined and that number will soon be substantially higher than that there's no country like us anywhere in the world and we're in great shape for. the future the United States imports almost no oil through the strait of Hormuz and won't be taking any in the future，we don't need it，we haven't needed it and we don't need it. we've beaten and completely decimated Iran they are decimated both militarily and economically and every other way and the countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage they must cherish it they must grab it and cherish it they can do it easily we will be helpful，but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on so to those countries that can't get fuel many of which refuse to get involved in the incapacitation of Iran. we had to do it ourselves i have a suggestion number one buy oil from the United States of America we have plenty we have so much and number two build up some delayed courage should have done it before should have done it with us as we have go to the Strait and just. take it protect it use it for yourselves the Iran has been essentially decimated the hard part is done so it should be easy and in any event when this conflict is over the strait will open up naturally it'll just open up naturally they're gonna want to be able to sell oil because that's all they have to try and rebuild it will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down stock prices will rapidly go back up they haven't come down very much frankly they came down a little bit. but they've had some very good days over the last couple of days we've done actually much better than i thought but we had to take that little journey to Iran to get rid of this horrible threat. with our historic tax cuts where people are just now talking about receiving larger refunds than they ever thought possible they are getting so much more money than they thought that's from the great big beautiful bill，our economy is strong and improving by the day and it will soon be roaring back like never before it will top the levels that it was a month ago i made clear from the beginning of operation epicure that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved thanks to the progress we've made i can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly，very shortly. we're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks we're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong in the meantime discussions are ongoing regime change was not our goal，we never said regime change，but regime change has occurred because of all of their original. leader's death they're all dead the new group is less radical and much more reasonable yet if during this period of time no deal is made we have our eyes on key targets if there's no deal we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously we have not hit their oil even though that's the easiest target of all because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding. but we could hit it and it would be gone and there's not a thing they could do about it they have no anti aircraft equipment their radar is one hundred percent annihilated we are unstoppable as a military force the nuclear sites that we obliterated with the b two bombers have been hit so hard that it would take months to get near the nuclear dust. then we have it under intense satellite，surveillance and control if we see them make a move even a move for it we'll hit them with missiles very hard again we have all the cards they have none it's very important that we keep this conflict in perspective American involvement in World War i lasted one year seven months and five days World War ii lasted for three years eight months and twenty five days the Korean war lasted for three years one month and two days the Vietnam war lasted for nineteen years five months and twenty nine days Iraq went on for eight. years eight months and twenty eight days we are in this military operation so powerful，so brilliant against one of the most powerful countries for. thirty two days and the country has been devastated and essentially is really no longer a threat they were the bully of the Middle East，but they're the bully no longer this is a true investment in your children and your grandchildren's future the whole world is watching and they can't believe the power strength and brilliance i just can't believe what they're saying they leave it to your imagination，but they can't believe what they're seeing the brilliance of the United States military tonight. every American can look forward to a day when we are finally free from the wickedness of Iranian aggression and the specter of nuclear blackmail because of the actions we've taken we are on the cusp of ending iran's sinister threat to America. and the world，and i'll tell you the world is watching and when we do when it's all over the United States will be safer stronger，more prosperous and greater than it has ever been before may god bless the men and women of the United States armed forces and may god bless the United States of America thank you very much and good night.
#NASA #阿尔忒弥斯二号 #宇航员 #航天探索 #载人火箭
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我录了一下但是粘不出来，网上还没找到原文，我简单理解一下他的讲话吧。 内容没新的，全都是我们每天看到的那些。 他之所以发表讲话应该是一个阶段性总结，毕竟不是每个人像我一样从头盯到尾，需要向选民们汇报一下。 先是强调了战争的正义性，强调伊朗在发展核武器。完全不提之前伊朗都弃核了，也不提美国突然杀死对方最高领导人的事。伊朗要真有核武器美国反而不敢打了。然后称赞了一下己方士兵。 然后PUA大家暂时忍受高油价，把锅甩给伊朗，说只要搞定伊朗一切就会很快恢复。 接下来两三周还会继续打击。既画了一个时间线，也缓解了人们的焦虑，当然到时候结束不了就又是另一番说辞了，先稳住就行，不必当真。 反正讲完之后的效果大家也都看到了，金银饼下跌，美元指数油价上涨
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讲完了，总体来说没什么新东西，都是之前的重复
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政权更迭并非我们的目标。我们从未说过要政权更迭，但由于他们的最高领导人去世，政权更迭已经发生。他们都死了。 新的领导团队没那么激进，也更加理性。然而在此期间，如果没有达成协议
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给缺油国家的建议：1. 向美国购买 2. 直接去海峡拿 3.只要战争结束，海峡自然会开放 虽然油价涨了，但这是为了消灭敌人必须的代价，而且之前的减税让人们得到了更多钱 美国很快会达成军事目标，两到三周内送他们回石器时代
#缺油国家 #美国 #石油 #战争 #海峡 #油价 #减税 #军事目标
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说股市一年创了53次历史新高，说美国有足够的石油天然气资源，比沙特俄罗斯加起来都多。
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主要强调了为什么打击伊朗——因为他们要发展核武器。目前对伊朗的打击很成功，海空军都被消灭了。油价的上涨都怪伊朗。
#伊朗核武器 #军事打击 #油价上涨
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必须强势围观川普演讲，行情已经开始剧烈波动了，川儿一句话就给我解套盈利了 。目前还处在吹嘘成绩和回顾过去里