Hu Ping胡平

ZT：乌克兰是时候接受丑陋的和平了——停火谈判开始后泽连斯基需要牢记的七件事（哈佛大学教授格雷厄姆.艾立森，《外交政策》2025年3月18日） It’s Time for Ukraine to Accept an Ugly Peace Seven things for Zelensky to keep in mind as cease-fire negotiations start. By Graham Allison, a professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky awaits cease-fire talks and negotiations to end Russia’s war in his country, he should reflect on an earlier chapter in this tragic conflict. In November 2022, just nine months after Moscow’s armies invaded Ukraine, Mark Milley, then the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a talk at the Economic Club of New York. His insights were controversial, but they offer clues about how to bring this war to an acceptable end. Milley understood a brute fact about war: However entertaining the theatrics and the memes, outcomes in conflicts are determined on the battlefield—not by the narratives that politicians spin about them. Dismissing Ukraine’s rhetoric about recovering all the territory Russia had seized, Milley insisted that “victory is probably not achievable through military means” and offered a detailed analysis explaining why Kyiv’s surprise counteroffensive had reached its limits. According to Milley, Ukraine now found itself bogged down in a stalemate, and its best option was to seize a “window of opportunity for negotiation.” 。。。。。。