现在是怎样一个时代?
历史不会重复,但常常押韵。
——马克·吐温
这个世界越来越乱了,扑朔迷离,让人越来越看不懂了。
要看清正在发生的历史,挽救人类和文明,必须站在思想的高处,必须看清现在是怎样一个时代:
现在是第三次世界大战的启动阶段,人类正在逐步滑向修昔底德陷阱。
战争机制像前两次世界大战一样,都是第二强国及其圈层企图挑战第一强国及其圈层的霸权地位,历史不会重复,但常常押韵。
前两次世界大战的挑战者是德国及其盟友,这次是中俄及其匪帮。因此,不要希望牺牲乌克兰的绥靖政策可以终止第二圈层挑战第一圈层的野心,他们只会激情澎湃,更加斗志昂扬。如果不能从第三次世界大战这样的意识高度看待当前发生的历史,这场可能灭绝人类的大战就难以避免。
相反,如能深刻认识到人类正在面临的巨大危机,第一圈层就应该尽快协调相互关系、尽快消化各国内部的党争、尽快把产业调整到战争模式,欧美和其他发达国家、英联邦国家尽快消除争端团结起来,把野蛮崛起的第二圈层正在激发的第三次世界大战扼杀在摇篮中。
当然,第二圈层国家如果认识到挑战不可能成功,战争继续只能共同灭亡而不可能幸存,也许他们会遏制继续挑衅的冲动,这样当然万幸,但人类不能寄希望于侥幸,而且,以人类的一贯的愚蠢看,这次大战突然终止的概率很低。
What kind of era is it now?
History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
—Mark Twain
The world is becoming more and more chaotic and confusing, making it increasingly difficult to understand.
To see clearly what is happening in history and to save humanity and civilization, we must stand at a high level of thought and see clearly what kind of era we are in:
Now is the start-up stage of the Third World War, and mankind is gradually sliding towards the Thucydides Trap.
The mechanism of the war is the same as that of the previous two world wars, in which the second most powerful country and its circle attempted to challenge the hegemony of the first most powerful country and its circle. History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
The challengers in the first two world wars were Germany and its allies, and this time it is China, Russia and their gangs. Therefore, don’t hope that the appeasement policy at the expense of Ukraine can end the ambition of the second circle to challenge the first circle. They will only be more passionate and more motivated. If we cannot view the current history from the height of consciousness like the Third World War, this war that may exterminate mankind is inevitable.
On the contrary, if we can deeply understand the huge crisis that mankind is facing, the first circle should coordinate its relations with each other as soon as possible, resolve the party disputes within each country as soon as possible, and adjust the industry to war mode as soon as possible. Europe, the United States and other developed countries and Commonwealth countries should eliminate disputes and unite as soon as possible to nip in the bud the Third World War that is being instigated by the barbaric rise of the second circle.
Of course, if the countries in the second circle realize that the challenge cannot succeed and that continuing the war will only lead to mutual destruction rather than survival, perhaps they will curb the urge to continue provocation. This would certainly be fortunate, but mankind cannot pin its hopes on luck. Moreover, given mankind's consistent stupidity, the probability of this war suddenly ending is very low.