勃勃OC2025-01-14 17:31:21Fed的中性利率预期可能远高于平均，达近4% 但问题来了，美国历史上从未将中性利率长期保持在2%以上，特别是08年之后 难道说，特朗普有什么魔法，“东升西降”，彻底改变了美国体制 还是说，衰退必将来临？ 蓝药丸，红药丸，吃哪一个 大家自己选吧
The Spectator Index2025-01-13 11:00:00Interest rate 🇹🇷 Turkey: 47.5% 🇦🇷 Argentina: 32% 🇷🇺 Russia: 21% 🇧🇷 Brazil: 12.25% 🇲🇽 Mexico: 10% 🇿🇦 South Africa: 7.75% 🇮🇳 India: 6.5% 🇮🇩 Indonesia: 6% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 5% 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: 4.75% 🇺🇸
Gary Black2025-01-08 13:26:05Trump’s proposed higher tariffs are bad for the economy since they increase inflation. That is causing 10yrTYs to spike higher (4.70%, +1.4bp and highest since April), which hurts high duration (high
